KenyaHow our predictions work
Every win chance on FootieRadar is calculated from data. None of it is a hunch, a tipster’s opinion or a guess by our writers. This page explains where the numbers come from, how we work them out and what they can and cannot tell you.
Last reviewed 15 October 2026
The market view
On match pages and previews you will see a market view: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. These figures come from the betting market, specifically from the odds set by Pinnacle.
We use Pinnacle because it is widely regarded as the sharpest bookmaker in the world. It runs on low margins and accepts large bets from professional bettors, and its prices move quickly when new information arrives, such as an injury or a team sheet. Analysts across the industry use its prices as a benchmark for how likely each result really is. Pinnacle is not one of our partners, and we earn nothing from it.
How we remove the bookmaker’s margin
Odds can be turned into a probability by dividing 1 by the odds. But every bookmaker builds in a margin, so the three probabilities for a match always add up to more than 100%. We remove that margin so the chances add up to exactly 100%. Here is a real example from a Premier League match:
| Step | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pinnacle’s odds | 3.29 | 3.70 | 2.18 |
| 2. 1 ÷ odds | 30.4% | 27.0% | 45.9% |
| 3. Total: 103.3%, so the margin is 3.3% | |||
| 4. Divide each by 1.033 | 29.4% | 26.2% | 44.4% |
| Market view (rounded to 100%) | 30% | 26% | 44% |
When Pinnacle has not priced a match yet, we use the average of every bookmaker in our odds feed instead, with each one’s margin removed, and say so under the figure. If fewer than three bookmakers have priced the match, we show nothing rather than a weak number. The market view updates every hour until kick-off.
Form, stats and team news
League tables, recent results, goals, clean sheets, injuries, suspensions and head-to-head records come from API-Football, a sports data provider covering more than 1,000 competitions. Stats tables in our previews are filled in directly from that data. Nobody types them in by hand.
How previews are written
Our match previews are written with the help of AI, using only the data described above. Before anything is published, an automatic check compares every number in the text against the source data. A draft with a number that is not in the data is rejected. The odds and the market view on the page are live and come straight from the feed, never from the writer.
The system learns as the season goes on. After every Premier League and Champions League match it updates its notes on both clubs: results, scorers, player ratings, runs of form, transfers and the manager. Each preview is reviewed against what actually happened, and once a week those reviews refine our style guide. The knowledge grows, but the rule stays the same: every fact must come from the data.
What a percentage means and what it does not
- A 44% chance of an away win means the market expects that team to win a little less than half the time, and to fail to win more often than not.
- Upsets happen all the time. A team given a 25% chance should still win about one game in four.
- The market view is the betting market’s view, not ours. We never call a result certain, and we do not sell or publish “sure” tips.
- Odds and chances change as news comes in. Always check the price on the bookmaker’s own site before you bet.
Affiliate links
Some links on FootieRadar go to bookmakers licensed in Kenya, and we may earn a commission if you sign up. That never changes the market view, which comes from Pinnacle’s prices, or the stats, which come from API-Football.
Betting should be entertainment, not a way to make money. Only bet what you can afford to lose. You must be 18 or older. Responsible gambling →